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 household income


Two Americas of Well-Being: Divergent Rural-Urban Patterns of Life Satisfaction and Happiness from 2.6 B Social Media Posts

Iacus, Stefano Maria, Porro, Giuseppe

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Using 2.6 billion geolocated social-media posts (2014-2022) and a fine-tuned generative language model, we construct county-level indicators of life satisfaction and happiness for the United States. We document an apparent rural-urban paradox: rural counties express higher life satisfaction while urban counties exhibit greater happiness. We reconcile this by treating the two as distinct layers of subjective well-being, evaluative vs. hedonic, showing that each maps differently onto place, politics, and time. Republican-leaning areas appear more satisfied in evaluative terms, but partisan gaps in happiness largely flatten outside major metros, indicating context-dependent political effects. Temporal shocks dominate the hedonic layer: happiness falls sharply during 2020-2022, whereas life satisfaction moves more modestly. These patterns are robust across logistic and OLS specifications and align with well-being theory. Interpreted as associations for the population of social-media posts, the results show that large-scale, language-based indicators can resolve conflicting findings about the rural-urban divide by distinguishing the type of well-being expressed, offering a transparent, reproducible complement to traditional surveys.


From Hubs to Deserts: Urban Cultural Accessibility Patterns with Explainable AI

Pranto, Protik Bose, Islam, Minhazul, Saha, Ripon Kumar, Rivera, Abimelec Mercado, Abbasov, Namig

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Cultural infrastructures, such as libraries, museums, theaters, and galleries, support learning, civic life, health, and local economies, yet access is uneven across cities. We present a novel, scalable, and open-data framework to measure spatial equity in cultural access. We map cultural infrastructures and compute a metric called Cultural Infrastructure Accessibility Score (CIAS) using exponential distance decay at fine spatial resolution, then aggregate the score per capita and integrate socio-demographic indicators. Interpretable tree-ensemble models with SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) are used to explain associations between accessibility, income, density, and tract-level racial/ethnic composition. Results show a pronounced core-periphery gradient, where non-library cultural infrastructures cluster near urban cores, while libraries track density and provide broader coverage. Non-library accessibility is modestly higher in higher-income tracts, and library accessibility is slightly higher in denser, lower-income areas.


Predicting Household Water Consumption Using Satellite and Street View Images in Two Indian Cities

Wang, Qiao, George, Joseph

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Monitoring household water use in rapidly urbanizing regions is hampered by costly, time-intensive enumeration methods and surveys. We investigate whether publicly available imagery-satellite tiles, Google Street View (GSV) segmentation-and simple geospatial covariates (nightlight intensity, population density) can be utilized to predict household water consumption in Hubballi-Dharwad, India. We compare four approaches: survey features (benchmark), CNN embeddings (satellite, GSV, combined), and GSV semantic maps with auxiliary data. Under an ordinal classification framework, GSV segmentation plus remote-sensing covariates achieves 0.55 accuracy for water use, approaching survey-based models (0.59 accuracy). Error analysis shows high precision at extremes of the household water consumption distribution, but confusion among middle classes is due to overlapping visual proxies. We also compare and contrast our estimates for household water consumption to that of household subjective income. Our findings demonstrate that open-access imagery, coupled with minimal geospatial data, offers a promising alternative to obtaining reliable household water consumption estimates using surveys in urban analytics.


Variational Autoencoded Multivariate Spatial Fay-Herriot Models

Wang, Zhenhua, Parker, Paul A., Holan, Scott H.

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Small area estimation models are essential for estimating population characteristics in regions with limited sample sizes, thereby supporting policy decisions, demographic studies, and resource allocation, among other use cases. The spatial Fay-Herriot model is one such approach that incorporates spatial dependence to improve estimation by borrowing strength from neighboring regions. However, this approach often requires substantial computational resources, limiting its scalability for high-dimensional datasets, especially when considering multiple (multivariate) responses. This paper proposes two methods that integrate the multivariate spatial Fay-Herriot model with spatial random effects, learned through variational autoencoders, to efficiently leverage spatial structure. Importantly, after training the variational autoencoder to represent spatial dependence for a given set of geographies, it may be used again in future modeling efforts, without the need for retraining. Additionally, the use of the variational autoencoder to represent spatial dependence results in extreme improvements in computational efficiency, even for massive datasets. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using 5-year period estimates from the American Community Survey over all census tracts in California.


Analysis of Premature Death Rates in Texas Counties: The Impact of Air Quality, Socioeconomic Factors, and COPD Prevalence

Rich, Richard, Diaz, Ernesto

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding factors contributing to premature mortality is critical for public health planning. This study examines the relationships between premature death rates and multiple risk factors across several Texas counties, utilizing EPA air quality data, Census information, and county health records from recent years. We analyze the impact of air quality (PM2.5 levels), socioeconomic factors (median household income), and health conditions (COPD prevalence) through statistical analysis and modeling techniques. Results reveal COPD prevalence as a strong predictor of premature death rates, with higher prevalence associated with a substantial increase in years of potential life lost. While socioeconomic factors show a significant negative correlation, air quality demonstrates more complex indirect relationships. These findings emphasize the need for integrated public health interventions that prioritize key health conditions while addressing underlying socioeconomic disparities.


Physics-Guided Fair Graph Sampling for Water Temperature Prediction in River Networks

He, Erhu, Kutscher, Declan, Xie, Yiqun, Zwart, Jacob, Jiang, Zhe, Yao, Huaxiu, Jia, Xiaowei

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This work introduces a novel graph neural networks (GNNs)-based method to predict stream water temperature and reduce model bias across locations of different income and education levels. Traditional physics-based models often have limited accuracy because they are necessarily approximations of reality. Recently, there has been an increasing interest of using GNNs in modeling complex water dynamics in stream networks. Despite their promise in improving the accuracy, GNNs can bring additional model bias through the aggregation process, where node features are updated by aggregating neighboring nodes. The bias can be especially pronounced when nodes with similar sensitive attributes are frequently connected. We introduce a new method that leverages physical knowledge to represent the node influence in GNNs, and then utilizes physics-based influence to refine the selection and weights over the neighbors. The objective is to facilitate equitable treatment over different sensitive groups in the graph aggregation, which helps reduce spatial bias over locations, especially for those in underprivileged groups. The results on the Delaware River Basin demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in preserving equitable performance across locations in different sensitive groups.


Evaluating the Determinants of Mode Choice Using Statistical and Machine Learning Techniques in the Indian Megacity of Bengaluru

Ghosh, Tanmay, Nagaraj, Nithin

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The decision making involved behind the mode choice is critical for transportation planning. While statistical learning techniques like discrete choice models have been used traditionally, machine learning (ML) models have gained traction recently among the transportation planners due to their higher predictive performance. However, the black box nature of ML models pose significant interpretability challenges, limiting their practical application in decision and policy making. This study utilised a dataset of $1350$ households belonging to low and low-middle income bracket in the city of Bengaluru to investigate mode choice decision making behaviour using Multinomial logit model and ML classifiers like decision trees, random forests, extreme gradient boosting and support vector machines. In terms of accuracy, random forest model performed the best ($0.788$ on training data and $0.605$ on testing data) compared to all the other models. This research has adopted modern interpretability techniques like feature importance and individual conditional expectation plots to explain the decision making behaviour using ML models. A higher travel costs significantly reduce the predicted probability of bus usage compared to other modes (a $0.66\%$ and $0.34\%$ reduction using Random Forests and XGBoost model for $10\%$ increase in travel cost). However, reducing travel time by $10\%$ increases the preference for the metro ($0.16\%$ in Random Forests and 0.42% in XGBoost). This research augments the ongoing research on mode choice analysis using machine learning techniques, which would help in improving the understanding of the performance of these models with real-world data in terms of both accuracy and interpretability.


Linking Alternative Fuel Vehicles Adoption with Socioeconomic Status and Air Quality Index

Singh, Anuradha, Yadav, Jyoti, Shrestha, Sarahana, Varde, Aparna S.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This is a study on the potential widespread usage of alternative fuel vehicles, linking them with the socio-economic status of the respective consumers as well as the impact on the resulting air quality index. Research in this area aims to leverage machine learning techniques in order to promote appropriate policies for the proliferation of alternative fuel vehicles such as electric vehicles with due justice to different population groups. Pearson correlation coefficient is deployed in the modeling the relationships between socio-economic data, air quality index and data on alternative fuel vehicles. Linear regression is used to conduct predictive modeling on air quality index as per the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, based on socio-economic factors. This work exemplifies artificial intelligence for social good.


Training Machine Learning Models to Characterize Temporal Evolution of Disadvantaged Communities

Jain, Milan, Mohankumar, Narmadha Meenu, Wan, Heng, Ganguly, Sumitrra, Wilson, Kyle D, Anderson, David M

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Disadvantaged communities (DAC), as defined by the Justice40 initiative of the Department of Energy (DOE), USA, identifies census tracts across the USA to determine where benefits of climate and energy investments are or are not currently accruing. The DAC status not only helps in determining the eligibility for future Justice40-related investments but is also critical for exploring ways to achieve equitable distribution of resources. However, designing inclusive and equitable strategies not just requires a good understanding of current demographics, but also a deeper analysis of the transformations that happened in those demographics over the years. In this paper, machine learning (ML) models are trained on publicly available census data from recent years to classify the DAC status at the census tracts level and then the trained model is used to classify DAC status for historical years. A detailed analysis of the feature and model selection along with the evolution of disadvantaged communities between 2013 and 2018 is presented in this study.


Having rich childhood friends is linked to a higher salary as an adult

New Scientist

Children who grow up in low-income households but who make friends that come from higher-income homes are more likely to have higher salaries in adulthood than those who have fewer such friends. "There's been a lot of speculation… that the individuals' access to social capital, their social networks and the community they live in might matter a lot for a child's chance to rise out of poverty," says Raj Chetty at Harvard University. To find out how if that holds up, he and his colleagues analysed anonymised Facebook data belonging to 72.2 million people in the US between the ages of 25 and 44, accounting for 84 per cent of the age group's US population. It is relatively nationally representative of that age group, he says. The team used a machine learning algorithm to determine each person's socioeconomic status (SES), combining data such as the median income of people who live in the same region, the person's age, sex and the value of their phone model as a proxy for individual income.